SINGAPORE, 17 NOVEMBER 2008 – The number of mobile connections in the Asia-Pacific could reach 2.9 billion in 2013, more than double 2007’s figure of 1.4 billion, according to research house Ovum.
Nathan Burley, an Ovum analyst, said this forecast indicates that Asia could be host to more than half of the world’s mobile connections by 2011, up from Ovum’s 2007 figure of 42 per cent.
According to Burley, mobile connection growth in developed markets such as Australia and Singapore will be driven predominantly by the demand for mobile broadband. “However, only a small proportion of connection growth will occur in developed markets,” added Burley.
In emerging markets such as China, India and Indonesia, a lower cost of ownership will continue to drive growth in the number of new prepaid customers. This growth is expected to be largely unaffected by the current global economic downturn. “We continue to see only limited impact on connections [stemming] from negative macro-economic conditions,” said Burley.
Slower revenue growth
The fast growing number of mobile subscriptions in the region is not expected to translate to a similar rate of revenue growth for mobile operators, according to Ovum, due to decreasing average revenue per user (APRU). The research firm, however, still expects a ‘healthy’ annual revenue growth rate of nine per cent through to 2013.
The firm noted that despite housing more than half of the world’s connections by 2013, the Asia-Pacific will still account for less than a third of the global mobile industry’s revenue, due to a lower APRU in Asia compared to the United States and Europe.
According to Ovum's forecasts, China and India, which had a combined total of 781,000 mobile connections in 2007 (547,000 for China and 234,000 for India) , will see this number rise to 1.7 billion by 2013. Indonesia, which had 86 million mobile connections in 2007, will have 225 million in 2013.
On the more modest developed market front, Australia will see an increase of six million mobile connections between 2007 to 2013, to reach 28 million. Singapore, which had 5.6 million mobile connections in 2007, will see this number rise to 8.1 million by 2013.
