After Apple launched its first 5G mobile phone iPhone 12 series, many fans have made pre-orders.
As of 6 o'clock in the evening on October 15, more than 1.34 million people have made reservations to purchase iPhone 12 series mobile phones in the self-operated flagship stores of Apple products on the two major e-commerce platforms of JD.com and Suning.com.
Brokerages are divided on the sales expectations of the iPhone 12 series. Some analysts believe that the iPhone 12 is priced higher than expected, which will have a certain impact on sales. However, many brokerages believe that the iPhone 12 series is expected to stimulate users' demand for replacement with the attraction of 5G functions.
Over 1.34 million people make a pre-order online
As of 6:15 pm on the 15th, there have been 1,258,200 reservations for iPhone 12 series phones in Apple's flagship store on JD.com. Among them, iPhone 12 has 615,000 reservations, iPhone 12 Pro has 318,200 reservations, iPhone 12 Pro Max has 188,100 reservations, and iPhone 12 mini has 136,900 reservations.
Source: Jingdong Mall
In the Suning self-operated flagship store of Apple products, 90,100 people have made reservations for the iPhone 12 series. Among them, iPhone 12 has 28,700 reservations, iPhone 12 Pro has 32,000 reservations, iPhone 12 Pro Max has 18,900 reservations, and iPhone 12 mini has 10,500 reservations.
In addition, the official flagship store of Apple’s Apple Store on Tmall also provides reservations for the iPhone 12 series, but does not show the number of reserved users.
TrendForce analyst Huang Yuxian analyzed to Zhongzheng Jun that Apple's launch of 5G mobile phones this year is aimed at high-end mobile phone consumers in the Chinese market in the short term.
Changjiang Securities Research Report pointed out that Apple’s iPhone 12 product coincides with the domestic 5G replacement wave. Many Apple users or potential users postpone the replacement to purchase a new 5G version of the iPhone. The iPhone 12 is a long-awaited innovation for these users.
IDC, a market research organization, believes that in terms of the market for the iPhone 12 series in the price range above $600, the capacity of the domestic market at this price range is about 23.5 million units in the first half of 2020, of which Apple has adopted the brand appeal of 4G models Can still occupy more than 40% of the share. The iPhone 12 series covers the price range of US$699 to US$1,099. The starting price of the mini version is the same as that of the previous generation 4G model. Not only is the price easy for consumers to accept, but the screen-to-body ratio under its small size is also upgraded. A large number of long-term users of the iPhone 7 and 8 series have a more user-friendly grip, which is expected to stimulate the desire of this part of the stock of old users to replace the phone, so Apple is expected to increase its market share in this price range.
Huang Yuxian told Zhongzheng Jun that the iPhone 12 pricing is roughly in line with expectations. Apple launched 5G mobile phones without increasing prices, which will help increase overall sales. TrendForce's forecast for iPhone shipments this year is relatively optimistic. The iPhone 12 series has a chance to rise from the originally expected 70 million to 75 million units to 75 million to 80 million units. However, due to the late release of the new phone, under the premise of limited capacity growth, the production performance of the old phone may be excluded. The annual production volume of iPhone still maintains the forecast of 194 million units.
But some analysts hold different views. SPDB International Technology analyst Shen Dai pointed out in a research report that iPhone 12 pricing is higher than market expectations, which may drag down the total iPhone shipments this year.
According to Shen Dai’s analysis, the entry price of the iPhone 12 is US$799 (6,299 yuan in mainland China), which is higher than the price of last year’s iPhone 11 (US$699, 5499 yuan in mainland China), which will affect some relatively price-sensitive The user's choice of this model.
Shen Dai believes that iPhone 12 sales should be significantly lower than current market expectations. Apple expanded its product line with the iPhone12 mini model, and also expanded user coverage. However, the lowest-priced iPhone 12 mini is officially released in mid-November, which will also affect the total shipments of the iPhone 12 series in the fourth quarter of this year.
However, Shen Dai pointed out that although the price is higher than market expectations, he also feels Apple's careful consideration in supplementing products: First, the prices of iPhone 12 Pro and iPhone 12 Pro Max are slightly lower than the iPhone 11 series. Second, the price range covered by iPhone 12 is wider than that in 2019. Third, in the same price range, more models are available in 2020 than in 2019. There are 7 iPhone models on sale in 2020, higher than the 6 models in 2019; there are 20 models on sale in 2020, which is also higher than the 13 models in 2019.
Shen Dai believes that although the higher-than-expected price of the iPhone 12 series has a certain impact on sales, the impact is controllable, and sales will be compensated for by a more comprehensive iPhone product line. It will take some time for the market to digest the impact of iPhone 12's price, which also gives investors the opportunity to enter Apple's supply chain.
On October 15, CICC issued a research report that pointed out that the innovation of iPhone 12 5G and appearance is expected to attract users to change phones. 72% of iPhone users around the world are still using models from 2017 and earlier. The iPhone 12 is likely to stimulate accumulated demand for replacement, end the decline in sales for 5 consecutive years, and become the most successful iPhone in 6 years.
